CREA Updates Resale Housing Market Forecast for 2026 and 2027

Ottawa, ON January 15, 2026 –  The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its 2026 forecast for home sales activity and average home prices via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations and extended the outlook to include 2027.

One year ago, expectations were that 2025 would mark a turning point, with buyers beginning to come off the sidelines after a significant slowdown across many Canadian housing markets. That slowdown coincided with the Bank of Canada’s use of higher interest rates to fight—and ultimately win—its first battle with inflation since adopting its inflation-targeting mandate in 1992.

While the economic uncertainty resulting from U.S. tariff threats ultimately resulted in another slow year for housing in 2025, most of that weakness was front loaded in the first months of the year. Beginning in April, the market underwent a rally that saw sales climb 12% by August. While this slowed into more of a holding pattern to finish the year, it’s that mid-year upward trend that is expected to pick up once again in 2026.

A major factor underpinning this forecast for higher activity in 2026 is pent-up demand, particularly from first-time buyers, many of whom have been shut out of the market over the past four years. While interest rates have not fallen as far as many may have hoped for, they have likely fallen far enough to restore the attainability of homeownership for many, despite affordability that remains more challenging than it was prior to 2020.

A significant milestone was reached on October 29, 2025, when the Bank of Canada indicated clearly that rates were likely about as good as they were going to get, which could draw in borrowers who had been waiting for that signal before taking on a fixed-rate mortgage.

On the supply side, an important factor to watch in 2026 is the pace at which inventory could be drawn down if demand is driven disproportionately by first-time buyers, as expected. First-time buyers remove listings from the market without adding new supply, accelerating inventory depletion.

Some 494,512 residential properties are forecast to trade hands via Canadian MLS® Systems in 2026, representing an increase of 5.1% from 2025. As previously forecast, the national gain is still expected to be driven largely by British Columbia and Ontario where sales have much more room to recover. Activity in B.C. and Ontario is forecast to rise by more than 8% in 2026, with gains of less than half that in most other provinces where sales are already running at higher levels and where supply is far more constrained.

The national average home price is forecast to rise by 2.8% on an annual basis to $698,881 in 2026, with smaller increases in B.C., Alberta, Ontario, and Nova Scotia, and larger gains in other provinces where prices have continued to climb at a decent clip in recent years, particularly Saskatchewan, Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador. That said, as much of that growth has been bolstered by record population growth up until recently, price gains in those hotter markets are forecast to be markedly lower than the gains recorded in 2025, falling from the 6%-8% range in 2025 to the 3%-6% range in 2026.

In 2027, national home sales are forecast to climb a further 3.5% to 511,966, again led by B.C. and Ontario, with most other provinces settling into growth in the low single digits.

The national average home price is forecast to edge up by 2.3% from 2026 to $714,991 in 2027, with slightly larger gains in Saskatchewan and Quebec, and other provinces in the 1%-2.5% range. This would mark the seventh straight year that the national average home price has hovered close to the $700,000 range.

Each quarter, CREA updates its forecast for home sales activity and average home prices via Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations. CREA’s next forecast will be published on Thursday, April 16, 2026.

(CREA) source